What is predictive validity?

What is predictive validity?

• A. A score that correlates with future outcomes
• B. A form of validity demonstrated when a score predicts a specific future outcome
• C. The consistency of test scores
• D. The test's ability to discriminate between groups

Answer: (B)

Predictive validity is a form of criterion-related validity that shows how well a test score can forecast a defined outcome in the future. The best description captures that the score demonstrates validity by predicting a specific future criterion, such as a licensure exam score predicting job performance. A simple correlation with future outcomes is related but less precise, because predictive validity specifically ties the test to a particular future outcome rather than any future event. The remaining ideas describe other concepts—reliability, which is about consistency of scores, and discriminant or known-groups validity, which relate to distinguishing between groups rather than forecasting a future criterion.

Predictive validity is a form of criterion-related validity that shows how well a test score can forecast a defined outcome in the future. The best description captures that the score demonstrates validity by predicting a specific future criterion, such as a licensure exam score predicting job performance. A simple correlation with future outcomes is related but less precise, because predictive validity specifically ties the test to a particular future outcome rather than any future event. The remaining ideas describe other concepts—reliability, which is about consistency of scores, and discriminant or known-groups validity, which relate to distinguishing between groups rather than forecasting a future criterion.